The Question Everyone’s Asking
If you’ve been thinking about buying in Austin, you’ve probably wrestled with this question:
“Should I wait for rates to drop — or buy now before prices climb again?”
Here’s the truth: there’s no universal answer. But using current Unlock MLS data (November 2025), we can read the market signals clearly — and they point to a window of opportunity for well-prepared buyers, especially in West Austin.
📊 What the Data Says Right Now
Across West Austin’s core neighborhoods — Westlake, Lakeway, Tarrytown, Zilker, and Barton Creek — here’s what we’re seeing:
• Median price: ~$1.1 M (flat year-over-year)
• $/sq ft: ~$520 (slight uptick, +4–5 %)
• Inventory: 9 months (balanced)
• Days on market: ~40 (down 20 % from 2024)
• List-to-close: ≈ 91 %
• Price-drop rate: 65 % of listings, average 8 % reduction
These numbers show a market that’s no longer falling — but not overheated either.
That’s what you want as a buyer: stability plus selection.
💡 What Happens If You Wait
Buyers often imagine waiting will save them money — but the math tells a different story.
If rates fall even 1 %, more buyers flood back in.
That demand increase can drive prices up 4–6 %, which erases the savings from the lower rate.
At the same time, inventory tightens. In markets like Westlake and Lake Pointe, we’ve already seen days on market shrink from 65 → 31 this year. That’s early evidence that pent-up demand is thawing.
So yes, rates might improve — but you’ll compete with everyone else who waited.
💡 Why Buying Now Can Make Sense
Right now, motivated sellers still outnumber eager buyers. That creates leverage you won’t have in a “spring-fever” market.
– Sellers are more open to concessions, leasebacks, or rate-buydowns.
– Builders are clearing high-end spec inventory before year-end.
– Cash buyers are quietly picking up quality homes at 2021-level pricing adjusted for inflation.
– Negotiation margins average 3–5 % better than they likely will in Q2 2026.
Timing the bottom is impossible — but buying near it is what builds wealth.
📍 How the Decision Breaks Down by Area
– Westlake / Rollingwood: Prices already stabilized; waiting risks higher competition.
– Lakeway / Bee Cave: Supply still healthy — great window for move-up buyers.
– Tarrytown / Clarksville: Limited listings; expect upward pressure once spring hits.
– Barton Creek / Lake Pointe: DOM cut in half — signs of buyers returning.
– Zilker / Barton Hills: Demand steady all year; waiting gains little, costs flexibility.
📈 My Take
“If you can afford the payment today, waiting rarely makes the deal better.”
Focus on monthly affordability, not rate speculation. You can always refinance a mortgage — you can’t refinance the price you paid.
West Austin’s fundamentals remain strong: world-class schools, limited land, and high job migration keep long-term demand secure.
Buying now — strategically — locks in both the home you love and the market while it’s still rational.
🎯 Final Thought
The best time to buy isn’t when the headlines say so — it’s when your finances, lifestyle, and local data all line up.
If you want to see your personal buy-now vs wait-later forecast, I can run a side-by-side MLS and cost-of-waiting analysis customized to your target area.
Brandon Galia | West Austin Realtor
brandongalia.com
